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Karela vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Premier League 2019

Karela
Karela
FT
3 – 0
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
4/1/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karela54%
×Draw27%
Ebusua Dwarfs19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karela
1.46
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.75

Karela creates 95% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

creates per match

Karela
1.43
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.77

allows per match

Karela
0.73
Ebusua Dwarfs
1.50

finishing

Karela+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karela ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Karela or draw
81%
Karela or Ebusua Dwarfs
73%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
46%

Winning margin

Karela wins by 2+
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Karela 1+ goals
77%
Karela 2+ goals
43%
Karela 3+ goals
18%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
53%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
17%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Karela (draw refunded)
74%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karela at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.73 · 111 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karela attack 1.43 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.77 + Karela defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Karela scores more
54%
level
27%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
19%

Karela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Karela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karela vs Ebusua Dwarfs

Karela beat Ebusua Dwarfs 3-0 in Premier League on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.