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KAMAZ vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
Preview
16:00
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
11/1/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 16KAMAZ Stadium
Big match
39%
KAMAZ
model favours
39%29%32%

Torpedo Moskva have won 6 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

KAMAZ39%
×Draw29%
Torpedo Moskva32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
1.16
Torpedo Moskva
1.02

KAMAZ creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 36 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
1.38
Torpedo Moskva
1.03

allows per match

KAMAZ
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
0.94

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
68%
KAMAZ or Torpedo Moskva
71%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
61%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
69%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
32%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
11%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
64%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
27%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
55%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 1.38 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.03 + KAMAZ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KAMAZ scores more
39%
level
29%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
32%

KAMAZ at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Torpedo Moskva’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
KAMAZ
LDLDD
Moskva
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ vs Torpedo Moskva — Match Preview

KAMAZ face Torpedo Moskva on November 1, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

KAMAZ host Torpedo Moskva at KAMAZ Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.