Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kaluga vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Kaluga
Kaluga
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
9/15/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 9Stadion Sputnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kaluga33%
×Draw25%
Avangard Kursk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaluga
1.31
Avangard Kursk
1.50

Avangard Kursk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kaluga
1.06
Avangard Kursk
1.44

allows per match

Kaluga
1.56
Avangard Kursk
1.56

finishing

Kaluga+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaluga ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kaluga or draw
58%
Kaluga or Avangard Kursk
75%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
67%

Winning margin

Kaluga wins by 2+
14%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kaluga 1+ goals
73%
Kaluga 2+ goals
38%
Kaluga 3+ goals
14%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
78%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
44%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kaluga (draw refunded)
44%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaluga at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaluga attack 1.06 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avangard Kursk attack 1.44 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kaluga scores more
33%
level
25%
Avangard Kursk scores more
42%

Avangard Kursk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaluga vs Avangard Kursk

Kaluga and Avangard Kursk drew 1-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sputnik in Kaluga.