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Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
9/14/2025Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Trudovye Rezervy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Avangard Kursk40%
×Draw27%
Kaluga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.31
Kaluga
1.17

Avangard Kursk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.63
Kaluga
0.71

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.63
Kaluga
1.00

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
67%
Avangard Kursk or Kaluga
73%
Draw or Kaluga
60%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
18%
Kaluga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
73%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
38%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
14%
Kaluga 1+ goals
69%
Kaluga 2+ goals
33%
Kaluga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
55%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.63 + Kaluga defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kaluga attack 0.71 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
40%
level
27%
Kaluga scores more
33%

Avangard Kursk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Avangard Kursk 1–2 Kaluga

Kaluga beat Avangard Kursk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Trudovye Rezervy Stadium in Kursk.