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Avangard Kursk vs Kaluga — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kaluga
Kaluga
11/10/2024Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 17Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Avangard Kursk49%
×Draw27%
Kaluga23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.39
Kaluga
0.86

Avangard Kursk creates 62% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.22
Kaluga
0.83

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
0.89
Kaluga
1.56

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
77%
Avangard Kursk or Kaluga
73%
Draw or Kaluga
51%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
24%
Kaluga wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
75%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
40%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
16%
Kaluga 1+ goals
58%
Kaluga 2+ goals
21%
Kaluga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
68%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Kaluga away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.22 + Kaluga defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kaluga attack 0.83 + Avangard Kursk defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
49%
level
27%
Kaluga scores more
23%

Avangard Kursk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Gold: Avangard Kursk 1–0 Kaluga

Avangard Kursk beat Kaluga 1-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Gold on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina in Khabarovsk.