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Kalmar FF vs Gais — Allsvenskan 2026

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Gais
Gais
L. Sætra 90+1'
J. Trenskow 40'
A. Ahl-Holmström 87'
A. Boudri 55'
J. Lindberg 6'
4/25/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 5Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Kalmar FF27%
×Draw28%
Gais45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
0.94
Gais
1.30

Gais creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
0.71
Gais
1.30

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.30
Gais
1.17

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.04on par
Gais+0.08on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
55%
Kalmar FF or Gais
72%
Draw or Gais
73%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
9%
Gais wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
61%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
24%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
7%
Gais 1+ goals
73%
Gais 2+ goals
37%
Gais 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
38%
Gais (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.30 · 8 matches

Gais away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.17 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 0.71 + Gais defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Gais attack 1.30 + Kalmar FF defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
27%
level
28%
Gais scores more
45%

Gais at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. TrenskowKalmar FFKalmar FF · F
8.9

Match Events

6'
J. Lindberg
35'
R. Jansson← A. Gersbach
40'
J. Trenskow↳ S. Skrabb
45+1'
Rasmus Sjöstedt
46'
A. Boudri← J. Lindberg
53'
K. Jensen← J. Ring
55'
A. Boudri
66'
A. Ahl-Holmström← J. Cooper-Love
66'
W. Milovanovic← A. Henriksson
67'
C. Amatkarijo← M. Çelik
78'
Harun Ibrahim
86'
F. Gustafsson← G. Lundgren
87'
A. Ahl-Holmström↳ W. Milovanovic
89'
L. Isa← A. Magashy
89'
William Anderson← D. Islamović
90+1'
L. Sætra↳ J. Trenskow

Possession

64%Kalmar

Shots

12Kalmar

Pass accuracy

52%Kalmar

Statistics

KalmarGais
Overview
64%Possession36%
12Total Shots19
4Corners8
11Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots19
5On Target11
6Off Target6
1Blocked2
8Inside Box13
4Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
645Total Passes364
538Accurate Passes277
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
8Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Gais

Gais beat Kalmar FF 3-2 in Allsvenskan on April 25, 2024.

Goals: J. Lindberg (6'), J. Trenskow (40'), A. Boudri (55'), A. Ahl-Holmström (87'), L. Sætra (90+1').

Kalmar FF controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 19.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.