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Gais vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
A. Cardaklija 84'
M. Hallberg 81' (OG)
S. Salter 6'
5/30/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Gais48%
×Draw24%
Kalmar FF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.64
Kalmar FF
1.18

Gais creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Gais
1.68
Kalmar FF
1.21

allows per match

Gais
1.15
Kalmar FF
1.59

finishing

Gais-0.15scores less
Kalmar FF-0.21scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gais or draw
73%
Gais or Kalmar FF
76%
Draw or Kalmar FF
52%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
25%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
81%
Gais 2+ goals
49%
Gais 3+ goals
23%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
69%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
33%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
64%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.59 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.68 + Kalmar FF defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kalmar FF attack 1.21 + Gais defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gais scores more
48%
level
24%
Kalmar FF scores more
27%

Gais at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
A. CardaklijaGaisGais · D
8.9

Match Events

6'
S. Salter↳ W. Milovanovic
13'
Samuel Salter
58'
A. Olusanya← N. Chourak
58'
V. Tyren← M. Soderback
62'
O. Pettersson← M. Andersson
69'
A. Wangberg← R. Frej
71'
S. Overby← V. Larsson
81'
M. HallbergOwn goal
83'
J. Lindberg← R. Thorkelsson
83'
S. Ekong← S. Salter
83'
F. Beckman← H. Sletsjoe
84'
A. Cardaklija↳ J. Lindberg
85'
A. Magashy← L. Saetra
85'
Z. Ravik← R. Gojani
86'
Vilmer Tyren
90+5'
William Milovanovic

Possession

52%Gais

Shots

16Gais

Pass accuracy

50%Gais

Statistics

GaisKalmar
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots12
1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.22
8Corners3
10Fouls6
Shots
16Total Shots12
5On Target2
5Off Target3
6Blocked7
8Inside Box8
8Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
512Total Passes475
430Accurate Passes396
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Gais vs Kalmar FF

Gais beat Kalmar FF 3-0 in Allsvenskan on May 30, 2026.

Goals: S. Salter (6'), M. Hallberg (81' o.g.), A. Cardaklija (84').

Gais controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Gothenburg.