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Gais vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
A. Norén 2'
J. Ring 33'
8/31/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Gamla Ullevi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Gais47%
×Draw25%
Kalmar FF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
1.63
Kalmar FF
1.21

Gais creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gais
1.67
Kalmar FF
1.24

allows per match

Gais
1.18
Kalmar FF
1.58

finishing

Gais-0.17scores less
Kalmar FF-0.24scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Gais or draw
72%
Gais or Kalmar FF
75%
Draw or Kalmar FF
53%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
24%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
80%
Gais 2+ goals
48%
Gais 3+ goals
22%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
70%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
34%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
62%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.18 · 20 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.67 + Kalmar FF defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Kalmar FF attack 1.24 + Gais defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Gais scores more
47%
level
25%
Kalmar FF scores more
28%

Gais at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. NorénGaisGais · D
8.0

Match Events

2'
A. Norén↳ R. Wendin Thomasson
33'
J. Ring↳ J. Karlsson
43'
Lucas Hedlund
54'
F. Gustafsson← J. Åberg
54'
J. Lindberg← A. Boudri
54'
A. Ahl-Holmström← L. Hedlund
69'
S. Ylätupa← D. Krasniqi
74'
E. Becirovic← C. Amatkarijo
79'
A. Magashy← M. Hallberg
85'
Abdussalam Magashy
85'
F. Beckman← A. Čardaklija
90+2'
Jonas Lindberg
90+1'
M. Svensson← J. Ring
90+1'
A. Motaraghebjafarpour← R. Sjöstedt

Possession

40%Gais

Shots

12Gais

Pass accuracy

46%Gais

Statistics

GaisKalmar
Overview
40%Possession60%
12Total Shots17
1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.72
5Corners4
14Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots17
3On Target7
6Off Target6
3Blocked4
7Inside Box13
5Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
345Total Passes541
247Accurate Passes451
72%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls17
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Gais 1 – 1 Kalmar FF

Gais and Kalmar FF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on August 31, 2024.

Goals: A. Norén (2'), J. Ring (33').

Kalmar FF controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Gamla Ullevi in Göteborg.