Juventude 1–0 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Juventude

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

Lucas Barbosa 38'

6/5/2024

Serie A · Round 5Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Juventude47%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Juventude

1.48

Atletico Goianiense

1.04

Juventude creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 11 away

1.13

creates per match

0.83

1.25

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Juventude

1.13

Atletico Goianiense

0.83

allows per match

Juventude

1.25

Atletico Goianiense

1.84

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.16scores more

Atletico Goianiense-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

73%

Juventude or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

53%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

24%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

77%

Juventude 2+ goals

43%

Juventude 3+ goals

19%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

64%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 34 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.84 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.13 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.83 + Juventude defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juventude scores more

47%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

27%

Juventude at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Gabriel Vasconcelos

Juventude · G

8.2

Match Events

3'

Jádson

10'

Guilherme Romão

38'

Lucas Barbosa↳ Erick Farias

46'

Alix Vinicius

46'

Rodrigo Sam← Zé Marcos

46'

Max← Lucas Kal

46'

E. Rodríguez← Vágner Love

50'

Rhaldney

63'

Rildo← Marcelinho

63'

Gilberto← Erick Farias

64'

Maguinho

71'

Thiago Conti← Caíque

73'

M. Zuleta← A. Cruz

73'

Daniel Simões← Rhaldney

74'

Ewerthon← Lucas Barbosa

90'

João Lucas

90'

João Lucas

90'

João Lucas

90+3'

Pedro Henrique← Gabriel Baralhas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeAtletico

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots22

1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.66

4Corners7

13Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots22

2On Target5

5Off Target9

1Blocked8

3Inside Box15

5Outside Box7

Passing

42%Possession58%

351Total Passes487

262Accurate Passes400

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

0.75Goals Prevented0.75

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1