Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Juventude: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Juventude

A. Cruz 90+11' (pen)

J. Hurtado 47'

Diego Gonçalves 90+1'

8/24/2024

Serie A · Round 24Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Atletico Goianiense51%

×Draw25%

Juventude23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.96

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

Juventude

0.96

Atletico Goianiense creates 63% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 33 away

1.29

creates per match

0.84

1.08

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.29

Juventude

0.84

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.08

Juventude

1.82

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.20scores less

Juventude+0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

77%

Atletico Goianiense or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

49%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

27%

Juventude wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

21%

Juventude 1+ goals

62%

Juventude 2+ goals

25%

Juventude 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

69%

Juventude (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 11 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.29 + Juventude defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Juventude attack 0.84 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

51%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

23%

Atletico Goianiense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Hurtado

Atletico Goianiense · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

9'

19'

45'

45+1'

46'

Lucas Barbosa← Marcelinho

47'

J. Hurtado

48'

Jan HurtadoGoal confirmed

54'

Janderson

59'

Jean Carlos← Nenê

61'

Gabriel Baralhas← Rhaldney

62'

Jorginho← J. Campbell

64'

Danilo Boza

72'

Diego Gonçalves← Erick Farias

72'

Davi Goes← Dudu Vieira

75'

E. Rodríguez← J. Hurtado

75'

A. Cruz← Janderson

80'

Bruno Tubarão

80'

Bruno Tubarão

82'

Edson Carioca← Davi Goes

84'

R. Haller← Luiz Fernando

89'

90+9'

90+6'

90+6'

90+1'

Diego Gonçalves↳ Jean Carlos

90+11'

A. CruzPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoJuventude

Overview

40%Possession60%

18Total Shots13

1.78Expected Goals (xG)0.57

4Corners5

17Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots13

7On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked5

11Inside Box4

7Outside Box9

Passing

40%Possession60%

269Total Passes394

206Accurate Passes325

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

-0.52Goals Prevented-0.52

Discipline

17Fouls10

5Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards1

0Offsides2