Atletico Goianiense 3–0 Juventude: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

Gabriel Baralhas 85'

Luiz Fernando 72'

Gustavo Coutinho 38'

9/10/2023

Serie B · Round 27Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Atletico Goianiense55%

×Draw25%

Juventude19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.81

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

Juventude

0.81

Atletico Goianiense creates 93% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

0.71

0.91

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.60

Juventude

0.71

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.91

Juventude

1.52

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.29scores less

Juventude+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

81%

Atletico Goianiense or Juventude

75%

Draw or Juventude

45%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

29%

Juventude wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

21%

Juventude 1+ goals

56%

Juventude 2+ goals

19%

Juventude 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

74%

Juventude (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 16 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.52 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.60 + Juventude defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Juventude attack 0.71 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

55%

level

25%

Juventude scores more

19%

Atletico Goianiense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Luiz Fernando

Atletico Goianiense · M

7.9

Match Events

38'

Gustavo Coutinho

46'

Mandaca← Reginaldo Lopes

46'

Kelvyn← Victor Andrade

57'

Gustavo Coutinho

62'

Gabriel Baralhas← Dodô

67'

Matheus Peixoto← Gustavo Coutinho

67'

Kelvin← Shaylon

70'

Matheus Vargas← Nenê

72'

Luiz Fernando↳ Kelvin

77'

Ruan← David da Hora

78'

Luiz Gustavo

85'

Gabriel Baralhas↳ Matheus Peixoto

86'

Gabriel Baralhas

87'

Marcos Serrato← Rhaldney

87'

Tite← Vini Paulista

88'

Rodrigo Soares← Luiz Fernando

90+4'

Gabriel TaliariPenalty cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoJuventude

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots7

2Corners5

16Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots7

10On Target3

4Off Target2

2Blocked2

12Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

368Total Passes369

289Accurate Passes275

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude

Atletico Goianiense beat Juventude 3-0 in Serie B on September 10, 2023.

Goals: Gustavo Coutinho (38'), Luiz Fernando (72'), Gabriel Baralhas (85').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (50%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Juventude