Junior 2–1 Cortulua: Result & Stats | Primera A

Junior

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Cortulua

L. González 37' (pen), 19'

J. Herrera 24'

10/24/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Junior55%

×Draw25%

Cortulua20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuniorExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.85

Junior

1.60

Cortulua

0.85

Junior creates 88% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 20 away

1.60

creates per match

0.90

0.80

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Junior

1.60

Cortulua

0.90

allows per match

Junior

0.80

Cortulua

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Junior or draw

80%

Junior or Cortulua

75%

Draw or Cortulua

45%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+

29%

Cortulua wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals

80%

Junior 2+ goals

47%

Junior 3+ goals

22%

Cortulua 1+ goals

57%

Cortulua 2+ goals

21%

Cortulua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)

73%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 201 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Cortulua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cortulua attack 0.90 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Junior scores more

55%

level

25%

Cortulua scores more

20%

Junior at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. González

Junior · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

F. Viafara

17'

S. A. Valencia Asprilla

19'

L. González↳ F. Sambueza

24'

J. Herrera↳ F. Delgado

37'

L. GonzálezPenalty

40'

C. Haydar← C. Bacca

57'

J. Colorado← S. Vergara

61'

C. Mosquera

75'

H. Rojas← W. Guisao

79'

H. Cummings

82'

B. Villalobos← C. Mosquera

83'

M. Gonzalez← H. Cummings

89'

E. Cetre

89'

Y. Gordillo← L. González

90+1'

E. Cetre

90+2'

J. Colorado

90'

N. Deossa← E. Cetré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuniorCortulua

Overview

30%Possession70%

10Total Shots13

5Corners0

12Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots13

6On Target3

3Off Target6

1Blocked4

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box5

Passing

30%Possession70%

194Total Passes463

129Accurate Passes401

66%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

1Offsides2