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Cortulua vs Junior — Primera A 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Junior
Junior
11/6/2016Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Doce De Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cortulua33%
×Draw30%
Junior37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.03
Junior
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 201 away

creates per match

Cortulua
0.92
Junior
0.96

allows per match

Cortulua
1.26
Junior
1.14

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Junior+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Junior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
63%
Cortulua or Junior
70%
Draw or Junior
67%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
13%
Junior wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
64%
Cortulua 2+ goals
28%
Cortulua 3+ goals
9%
Junior 1+ goals
67%
Junior 2+ goals
30%
Junior 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
47%
Junior (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Junior away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.92 + Junior defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Junior attack 0.96 + Cortulua defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cortulua scores more
33%
level
30%
Junior scores more
37%

Junior at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Cortulua 1–2 Junior

Junior beat Cortulua 2-1 in Primera A on November 6, 2016.

The match was played at Estadio Doce De Octubre in Tulua.