Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Junior vs Cortulua — Primera A 2018

Junior
Junior
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cortulua
Cortulua
4/2/2017Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Junior57%
×Draw25%
Cortulua18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junior
1.62
Cortulua
0.79

Junior creates 105% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 36 away

creates per match

Junior
1.60
Cortulua
0.78

allows per match

Junior
0.80
Cortulua
1.64

finishing

Junior+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Junior or draw
82%
Junior or Cortulua
75%
Draw or Cortulua
43%

Winning margin

Junior wins by 2+
31%
Cortulua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Junior 1+ goals
80%
Junior 2+ goals
48%
Junior 3+ goals
22%
Cortulua 1+ goals
55%
Cortulua 2+ goals
19%
Cortulua 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Junior (draw refunded)
76%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 202 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior attack 1.60 + Cortulua defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cortulua attack 0.78 + Junior defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Junior scores more
57%
level
25%
Cortulua scores more
18%

Junior at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Junior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Junior 2–1 Cortulua

Junior beat Cortulua 2-1 in Primera A on April 2, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla.