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Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
Y. Ōsako 76' (pen)
7/9/2022J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Jubilo Iwata33%
×Draw25%
Vissel Kobe42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.29
Vissel Kobe
1.50

Vissel Kobe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 146 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.23
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.59
Vissel Kobe
1.36

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
58%
Jubilo Iwata or Vissel Kobe
75%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
67%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
14%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
72%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
37%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
14%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
44%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
44%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.23 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
33%
level
25%
Vissel Kobe scores more
42%

Vissel Kobe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
H. IikuraVissel KobeVissel Kobe · G
7.7

Match Events

46'
R. Uehara← R. Germain
60'
S. Kaneko← N. Kanuma
64'
D. Sasaki← Y. Oda
64'
Y. Ōsako← Andrés Iniesta
73'
M. Yoshinaga← M. Matsumoto
76'
Y. ŌsakoPenalty
80'
Yoshinori MutoPenalty cancelled
82'
K. Sugimoto← K. Omori
85'
Y. Goke← K. Yuruki
87'
Makito Ito
90+4'
Hiroki Ilkura

Possession

44%Jubilo

Shots

4Jubilo

Pass accuracy

49%Jubilo

Statistics

JubiloVissel
Overview
44%Possession56%
4Total Shots14
1Corners7
12Fouls8
Shots
4Total Shots14
2On Target3
1Off Target3
1Blocked8
4Inside Box9
0Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
419Total Passes530
355Accurate Passes469
85%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

J1 League: Jubilo Iwata 0–1 Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Jubilo Iwata 1-0 in J1 League on July 9, 2022.

Goals: Y. Ōsako (76' pen).

Vissel Kobe controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.