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Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
2/24/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jubilo Iwata32%
×Draw25%
Vissel Kobe43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.27
Vissel Kobe
1.51

Vissel Kobe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.21
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.60
Vissel Kobe
1.34

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
57%
Jubilo Iwata or Vissel Kobe
75%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
68%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
14%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
72%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
36%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
14%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
78%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
44%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
43%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.34 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.21 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
32%
level
25%
Vissel Kobe scores more
43%

Vissel Kobe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Jubilo Iwata 0–2 Vissel Kobe

Vissel Kobe beat Jubilo Iwata 2-0 in J1 League on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.