Jubilo Iwata 1–1 Vissel Kobe: Result & Stats

Jubilo Iwata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vissel Kobe

G. Rodrigues 90+3'

David Villa 3' (pen)

6/1/2019

J1 League · Round 14Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Jubilo Iwata33%

×Draw25%

Vissel Kobe42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jubilo IwataExpected goals in this matchVissel Kobe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.52

Jubilo Iwata

1.30

Vissel Kobe

1.52

Vissel Kobe creates 17% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 146 away

1.24

creates per match

1.42

1.62

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.24

Vissel Kobe

1.42

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.62

Vissel Kobe

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Vissel Kobe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw

58%

Jubilo Iwata or Vissel Kobe

75%

Draw or Vissel Kobe

67%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

14%

Vissel Kobe wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

73%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

37%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

14%

Vissel Kobe 1+ goals

78%

Vissel Kobe 2+ goals

45%

Vissel Kobe 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

43%

Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.24 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more

33%

level

25%

Vissel Kobe scores more

42%

Vissel Kobe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Rodrigues

Jubilo Iwata · F

7.8

Match Events

3'

David VillaPenalty

26'

45'

58'

68'

70'

S. Fujitani← Sergi Samper

75'

Daiki Miya

78'

D. Araki← H. Yamada

84'

M. Nakayama← M. Matsumoto

84'

Y. Nakasaka← David Villa

90'

Ryo Shinzato

90'

Dankler

90+3'

G. Rodrigues

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JubiloVissel

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots9

4Corners3

12Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots9

5On Target4

10Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box6

11Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

462Total Passes449

382Accurate Passes365

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

–Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe

Jubilo Iwata and Vissel Kobe drew 1-1 in J1 League on June 1, 2019.

Goals: David Villa (3' pen), G. Rodrigues (90+3').

Jubilo Iwata controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.

Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Jubilo Iwata vs Vissel Kobe