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JS Kabylie vs Esperance Tunis — CAF Champions League 2019

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
2/1/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 6Stade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

JS Kabylie45%
×Draw33%
Esperance Tunis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.07
Esperance Tunis
0.64

JS Kabylie creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 40 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.25
Esperance Tunis
1.02

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.25
Esperance Tunis
0.90

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
78%
JS Kabylie or Esperance Tunis
67%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
55%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
19%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
66%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
29%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
9%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
47%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
14%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
68%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 16 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.25 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + JS Kabylie defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
45%
level
33%
Esperance Tunis scores more
22%

JS Kabylie at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kabylie vs Esperance Tunis

JS Kabylie beat Esperance Tunis 1-0 in CAF Champions League on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 in Tizi-Ouzou.