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ES Tunis vs JS Kabylie — CAF Champions League 2019

ES Tunis
ES Tunis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
4/29/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ES Tunis61%
×Draw25%
JS Kabylie14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ES Tunis
1.59
JS Kabylie
0.60

ES Tunis creates 165% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 16 away

creates per match

ES Tunis
1.50
JS Kabylie
0.75

allows per match

ES Tunis
0.45
JS Kabylie
1.69

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par
JS Kabylie+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

JS Kabylie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw
86%
ES Tunis or JS Kabylie
75%
Draw or JS Kabylie
39%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+
34%
JS Kabylie wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals
80%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
47%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
21%
JS Kabylie 1+ goals
45%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
12%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)
82%
JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

JS Kabylie away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 1.50 + JS Kabylie defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

JS Kabylie attack 0.75 + ES Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

ES Tunis scores more
61%
level
25%
JS Kabylie scores more
14%

ES Tunis at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: ES Tunis 1–1 JS Kabylie

ES Tunis and JS Kabylie drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi in Radès.