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JS Kabylie vs ES Tunis — CAF Champions League 2019

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
ES Tunis
ES Tunisadvanced
4/21/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsStade du 5 Juillet 1962

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

JS Kabylie45%
×Draw33%
ES Tunis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.07
ES Tunis
0.64

JS Kabylie creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 40 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.25
ES Tunis
1.02

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.25
ES Tunis
0.90

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
ES Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

ES Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
78%
JS Kabylie or ES Tunis
67%
Draw or ES Tunis
55%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
19%
ES Tunis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
66%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
29%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
9%
ES Tunis 1+ goals
47%
ES Tunis 2+ goals
14%
ES Tunis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
68%
ES Tunis (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 16 matches

ES Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.25 + ES Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

ES Tunis attack 1.02 + JS Kabylie defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
45%
level
33%
ES Tunis scores more
22%

JS Kabylie at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kabylie vs ES Tunis

ES Tunis beat JS Kabylie 1-0 in CAF Champions League on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du 5 Juillet 1962 in Algiers.