Jorge Wilstermann 3–2 Oriente Petrolero

Jorge Wilstermann

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Oriente Petrolero

V. Castellón 60'

C. Machado 56'

J. Velázquez 28'

J. Vargas 90+2'

J. Correa 44'

6/25/2023

Primera División · Round 17Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann55%

×Draw23%

Oriente Petrolero23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jorge WilstermannExpected goals in this matchOriente Petrolero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.13

Jorge Wilstermann

1.88

Oriente Petrolero

1.13

Jorge Wilstermann creates 66% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 128 away

1.75

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.75

Oriente Petrolero

1.17

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.09

Oriente Petrolero

2.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Oriente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Oriente Petrolero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw

77%

Jorge Wilstermann or Oriente Petrolero

77%

Draw or Oriente Petrolero

45%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

31%

Oriente Petrolero wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

85%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

56%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

29%

Oriente Petrolero 1+ goals

68%

Oriente Petrolero 2+ goals

31%

Oriente Petrolero 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

71%

Oriente Petrolero (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.09 · 126 matches

Oriente Petrolero away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.75 + Oriente Petrolero defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

Oriente Petrolero attack 1.17 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

55%

level

23%

Oriente Petrolero scores more

23%

Jorge Wilstermann at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Chumacero

Jorge Wilstermann · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

Erwin Junior Sánchez

28'

J. Velázquez↳ R. Cardozo

33'

Enrique FloresCard upgrade

34'

Enrique Flores

35'

Jorge Correa

44'

J. Correa↳ C. Árabe

46'

C. Esparza← J. Velásquez

46'

L. Villagra← A. Peña

56'

Cristhian Árabe

56'

C. Machado↳ A. Chumacero

60'

Vladimir Castellón

60'

V. Castellón↳ A. Chumacero

69'

H. Rojas← C. Árabe

70'

J. Vargas← J. Cristaldo

71'

A. Juárez← Robson

78'

F. Martínez← C. Machado

84'

M. Cuéllar← F. Rodríguez

85'

A. Pacheco← R. Cardozo

89'

L. Gutiérrez← S. Reyes

90+9'

Jorge Rojas

90+5'

Erwin Junior Sánchez

90+5'

Erwin Junior Sánchez

90+2'

J. Vargas↳ L. Villagra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JorgeOriente

Overview

70%Possession30%

19Total Shots7

4Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots7

9On Target2

8Off Target2

2Blocked3

9Inside Box2

10Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

505Total Passes217

444Accurate Passes135

88%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

6Offsides0