Jorge Wilstermann 4–0 Atlético Palmaflor

Jorge Wilstermann

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Palmaflor

4/30/2023

Primera División · Round 11Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann57%

×Draw22%

Atlético Palmaflor21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jorge WilstermannExpected goals in this matchAtlético Palmaflor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.05

Jorge Wilstermann

1.90

Atlético Palmaflor

1.05

Jorge Wilstermann creates 81% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 66 away

1.74

creates per match

0.97

1.14

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.74

Atlético Palmaflor

0.97

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.14

Atlético Palmaflor

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw

79%

Jorge Wilstermann or Atlético Palmaflor

78%

Draw or Atlético Palmaflor

43%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

33%

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

85%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

56%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

29%

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

65%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

28%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

73%

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

57%

level

22%

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

21%

Jorge Wilstermann at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff