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Jorge Wilstermann vs Atlético Palmaflor — Primera División 2019

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Palmaflor
Atlético Palmaflor
7/2/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 1Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann57%
×Draw22%
Atlético Palmaflor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
1.90
Atlético Palmaflor
1.05

Jorge Wilstermann creates 81% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 66 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Atlético Palmaflor
0.97

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Atlético Palmaflor
2.05

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Atlético Palmaflor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
79%
Jorge Wilstermann or Atlético Palmaflor
78%
Draw or Atlético Palmaflor
43%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
33%
Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
85%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
56%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals
28%
Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
73%
Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Atlético Palmaflor away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlético Palmaflor attack 0.97 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
57%
level
22%
Atlético Palmaflor scores more
21%

Jorge Wilstermann at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jorge Wilstermann vs Atlético Palmaflor

Jorge Wilstermann beat Atlético Palmaflor 2-1 in Primera División on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.