Atlético Palmaflor 1–1 Jorge Wilstermann

Atlético Palmaflor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jorge Wilstermann

9/8/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Atlético Palmaflor47%

×Draw26%

Jorge Wilstermann26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético PalmaflorExpected goals in this matchJorge Wilstermann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Atlético Palmaflor

1.46

Jorge Wilstermann

1.02

Atlético Palmaflor creates 43% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 123 away

1.40

creates per match

1.12

0.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Atlético Palmaflor

1.40

Jorge Wilstermann

1.12

allows per match

Atlético Palmaflor

0.92

Jorge Wilstermann

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Palmaflor+0.00on par

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Palmaflor ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Palmaflor or draw

74%

Atlético Palmaflor or Jorge Wilstermann

74%

Draw or Jorge Wilstermann

53%

Winning margin

Atlético Palmaflor wins by 2+

23%

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlético Palmaflor 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Palmaflor 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Palmaflor 3+ goals

18%

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

64%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

27%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Palmaflor (draw refunded)

64%

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Palmaflor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 65 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Palmaflor attack 1.40 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Atlético Palmaflor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Palmaflor scores more

47%

level

26%

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

26%

Atlético Palmaflor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlético Palmaflor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff