Jonkopings Sodra 1–2 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Jonkopings Sodra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Varnamo

8/20/2024

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundStadsparksvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra28%

×Draw27%

IFK Varnamo45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jonkopings SodraExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.35

Jonkopings Sodra

1.00

IFK Varnamo

1.35

IFK Varnamo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

1.00

creates per match

1.70

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.00

IFK Varnamo

1.70

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra

1.00

IFK Varnamo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw

55%

Jonkopings Sodra or IFK Varnamo

73%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

72%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+

10%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals

63%

Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals

26%

Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals

8%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

74%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

39%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)

38%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.00 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

IFK Varnamo attack 1.70 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more

28%

level

27%

IFK Varnamo scores more

45%

IFK Varnamo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff