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IFK Varnamo vs Jonkopings Sodra — Superettan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
9/16/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 19Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IFK Varnamo42%
×Draw26%
Jonkopings Sodra32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.44
Jonkopings Sodra
1.21

IFK Varnamo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 90 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.32
Jonkopings Sodra
1.30

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.11
Jonkopings Sodra
1.56

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Jonkopings Sodra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
68%
IFK Varnamo or Jonkopings Sodra
74%
Draw or Jonkopings Sodra
58%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
20%
Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
76%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
42%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
18%
Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
70%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
34%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
57%
Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Jonkopings Sodra away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.56 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.30 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
42%
level
26%
Jonkopings Sodra scores more
32%

IFK Varnamo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: IFK Varnamo 2–0 Jonkopings Sodra

IFK Varnamo beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-0 in Superettan on September 16, 2021.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.