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Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo — Superettan 2026

Jonkopings Sodra
Jonkopings Sodra
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
J. Svensson 83' (OG)
O. Uddenäs 30'
F. Winsth 26'
8/2/2021SuperettanSuperettan · Round 14Vapenvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jonkopings Sodra51%
×Draw24%
IFK Varnamo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jonkopings Sodra
1.71
IFK Varnamo
1.11

Jonkopings Sodra creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 40 away

creates per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.51
IFK Varnamo
1.02

allows per match

Jonkopings Sodra
1.20
IFK Varnamo
1.90

finishing

Jonkopings Sodra+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonkopings Sodra ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jonkopings Sodra or draw
75%
Jonkopings Sodra or IFK Varnamo
76%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
49%

Winning margin

Jonkopings Sodra wins by 2+
28%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jonkopings Sodra 1+ goals
82%
Jonkopings Sodra 2+ goals
51%
Jonkopings Sodra 3+ goals
24%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
67%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
30%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jonkopings Sodra (draw refunded)
68%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonkopings Sodra at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.51 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Jonkopings Sodra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jonkopings Sodra scores more
51%
level
24%
IFK Varnamo scores more
25%

Jonkopings Sodra at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jonkopings Sodra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
F. Winsth
30'
O. Uddenäs
45+3'
Jesper Svensson
46'
C. Vindehall← Wenderson
51'
Edvin Becirovic
63'
E. Nordström← A. Edqvist
63'
E. Hamidović← A. Lamin
63'
J. Stevens← O. Uddenäs
73'
Perparim Beqaj
75'
M. Fazal← M. Nikolic
76'
E. Kwakwa← D. Ljung
83'
J. SvenssonOwn goal
86'
F. De Vries← A. Magashy
86'
Erick Brendon← E. Becirovic
86'
R. Dzabic← W. Kenndal

Statistics

JonkopingsIFK
Overview
5Corners9
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo

IFK Varnamo beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-0 in Superettan on August 2, 2021.

Goals: F. Winsth (26'), O. Uddenäs (30'), J. Svensson (83' o.g.).

The match was played at Vapenvallen in Huskvarna.