Jong AZ 2–2 Willem II: Result & Stats

Jong AZ

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Willem II

J. Addai 90+1'

J. van Aken 55'

J. Hornkamp 20' (pen)

E. Kabangu 7'

3/6/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 27AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong AZ39%

×Draw23%

Willem II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.64

Jong AZ

1.68

Willem II

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.66

creates per match

1.73

1.55

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.66

Willem II

1.73

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.55

Willem II

1.70

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less

Willem II-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

62%

Jong AZ or Willem II

77%

Draw or Willem II

61%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

20%

Willem II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

81%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

50%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

24%

Willem II 1+ goals

81%

Willem II 2+ goals

49%

Willem II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

51%

Willem II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + Willem II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.68

Willem II attack 1.73 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong AZ scores more

39%

level

23%

Willem II scores more

38%

Jong AZ at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Addai

Jong AZ · F

7.6

Match Events

7'

E. Kabangu↳ L. Owusu

20'

J. HornkampPenalty

25'

Pol Llonch

39'

Jizz Hornkamp

46'

J. van Aken← L. Postma

46'

J. Bokila← E. Kabangu

55'

J. van Aken↳ D. Reverson

64'

F. Heerkens← Pol Llonch

64'

D. Mathieu← M. Svensson

79'

T. Oosting← J. Hornkamp

81'

J. Addai← R. Daal

81'

E. Poku← D. Reverson

81'

N. Koster← D. Beukers

84'

J. Gerold← K. Smit

87'

J. Bosch← R. Meerveld

90+1'

J. Addai↳ J. Gerold

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongWillem

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots15

0Corners7

12Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots15

5On Target6

1Off Target7

4Blocked2

4Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

672Total Passes293

586Accurate Passes205

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1