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Jong AZ vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC OSS
FC OSS
K. de Wit 26'
11/24/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 17AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong AZ46%
×Draw23%
FC OSS31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.73
FC OSS
1.38

Jong AZ creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.66
FC OSS
1.21

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.55
FC OSS
1.79

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less
FC OSS-0.35scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
69%
Jong AZ or FC OSS
77%
Draw or FC OSS
54%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
24%
FC OSS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
82%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
52%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
25%
FC OSS 1+ goals
75%
FC OSS 2+ goals
40%
FC OSS 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
60%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + FC OSS defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC OSS attack 1.21 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jong AZ scores more
46%
level
23%
FC OSS scores more
31%

Jong AZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. HavekotteFC OSSFC OSS · G
8.7

Match Events

26'
K. de Wit
43'
Joshua Zimmerman
46'
Y. Van Der Velde← D. Kwakman
46'
A. Smits← D. van der Klaauw
60'
L. Mol← K. de Wit
60'
M. Hinoke← M. Erkan
65'
Yoël van den Ban
69'
F. Turay← J. Zimmerman
69'
T. Wildeboer← S. Doucoure
76'
A. Imhangbe← E. Adjedj
90+4'
N. Pinto←

Possession

60%Jong

Shots

13Jong

Pass accuracy

53%Jong

Statistics

JongFC
Overview
60%Possession40%
13Total Shots11
1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.57
6Corners4
12Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target2
5Off Target6
3Blocked3
6Inside Box9
7Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
481Total Passes315
398Accurate Passes231
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 0–1 FC OSS

FC OSS beat Jong AZ 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 24, 2025.

Goals: K. de Wit (26').

Jong AZ controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.