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Jong AZ vs FC OSS — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC OSS
FC OSS
R. Daal 41'
G. Korte 55'
3/31/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 32AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong AZ46%
×Draw23%
FC OSS31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.73
FC OSS
1.38

Jong AZ creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.66
FC OSS
1.21

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.55
FC OSS
1.79

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less
FC OSS-0.35scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

FC OSS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
69%
Jong AZ or FC OSS
77%
Draw or FC OSS
54%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
24%
FC OSS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
82%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
52%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
25%
FC OSS 1+ goals
75%
FC OSS 2+ goals
40%
FC OSS 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
60%
FC OSS (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

FC OSS away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + FC OSS defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC OSS attack 1.21 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jong AZ scores more
46%
level
23%
FC OSS scores more
31%

Jong AZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. EsajasFC OSSFC OSS · M
8.0

Match Events

15'
Jurre van Aken
41'
R. Daal↳ J. Esajas
55'
G. Korte↳ L. Slagveer
61'
Y. Hamdi← R. Daal
65'
Yassin Hamdi
66'
Mauresmo Hinoke
70'
T. Cox← G. Troupée
70'
M. Remans← L. Slagveer
72'
A. Ait Ali Oulhaj← S. van Duijn
77'
M. van Rooijen← D. Markx
81'
T. Wildeboer← M. Hinoke
86'
I. Splinter← N. Twisk
88'
T. van der Werff← G. Korte

Possession

63%Jong

Shots

16Jong

Pass accuracy

53%Jong

Statistics

JongFC
Overview
63%Possession37%
16Total Shots13
5Corners4
16Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots13
8On Target6
3Off Target4
5Blocked3
6Inside Box9
10Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
518Total Passes287
431Accurate Passes214
83%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 1–1 FC OSS

Jong AZ and FC OSS drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 31, 2025.

Goals: R. Daal (41'), G. Korte (55').

Jong AZ controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.