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FC OSS vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
B. Kovacs 68', 58', 49'
2/13/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC OSS50%
×Draw23%
Jong AZ27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.81
Jong AZ
1.27

FC OSS creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.54
Jong AZ
0.84

allows per match

FC OSS
1.71
Jong AZ
2.08

finishing

FC OSS+0.17scores more
Jong AZ+0.36scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
73%
FC OSS or Jong AZ
77%
Draw or Jong AZ
50%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
28%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
84%
FC OSS 2+ goals
54%
FC OSS 3+ goals
27%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
72%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
36%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
65%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.54 + Jong AZ defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jong AZ attack 0.84 + FC OSS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC OSS scores more
50%
level
23%
Jong AZ scores more
27%

FC OSS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
B. KovacsJong AZJong AZ · F
9.6

Match Events

44'
Yoël van den Ban
46'
A. Smits← W. Bouziane
46'
B. Kovacs← J. Oerip
49'
B. Kovacs↳ J. Hartog
58'
B. Kovacs
60'
M. van Rooijen← L. Mol
60'
S. Doucoure← T. Wildeboer
61'
B. Van Hove← J. Kuijpers
68'
B. Kovacs↳ A. Smits
69'
M. Erkan← M. Hinoke
70'
J. Esajas← J. Hartog
70'
D. van der Klaauw← F. E. Andersen
80'
Jesper Zwart
85'
N. Pinto← L. Slagveer
87'
T. Johannessen← H. de Wit

Possession

50%FC

Shots

17FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCJong
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots25
10Corners4
7Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots25
3On Target8
7Off Target10
7Blocked7
13Inside Box13
4Outside Box12
Passing
50%Possession50%
434Total Passes445
348Accurate Passes381
80%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls13
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

FC OSS 0 – 3 Jong AZ

Jong AZ beat FC OSS 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 13, 2026.

Goals: B. Kovacs (49', 58', 68').

FC OSS controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 25.

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.