Jong AZ 2–3 Emmen: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Jong AZ

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Emmen

B. Kovacs 54'

A. Oufkir 35'

S. van Manen 77'

F. Gerezgiher 45'

C. Staring 18'

3/9/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 30AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jong AZ47%

×Draw22%

Emmen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.49

Jong AZ

1.88

Emmen

1.49

Jong AZ creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.66

creates per match

1.43

1.55

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.66

Emmen

1.43

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.55

Emmen

2.11

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less

Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

69%

Jong AZ or Emmen

78%

Draw or Emmen

53%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

26%

Emmen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

85%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

56%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

29%

Emmen 1+ goals

77%

Emmen 2+ goals

44%

Emmen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

60%

Emmen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.88

Emmen attack 1.43 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong AZ scores more

47%

level

22%

Emmen scores more

31%

Jong AZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Staring

Emmen · M

8.0

Match Events

18'

C. Staring↳ R. Postema

35'

A. Oufkir

45'

F. Gerezgiher↳ L. Larsen

46'

K. Zeggen← J. Schipper

46'

B. Kovacs← M. Meerdink

54'

B. Kovacs↳ W. Bouziane

59'

F. Quispel← A. Bakir

59'

D. Nunumete← R. Kongolo

61'

J. Hartog← A. Oufkir

68'

G. Bolk← L. Larsen

72'

J. Oerip← R. Robbemond

77'

T. Geypens← V. Besuijen

77'

S. van Manen← F. Gerezgiher

77'

S. van Manen

84'

Joshua Mukeh

86'

A. Smits← W. Bouziane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongEmmen

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots10

2.05Expected Goals (xG)1.51

7Corners2

7Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots10

3On Target5

10Off Target4

1Blocked1

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

394Total Passes413

324Accurate Passes331

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 2–3 Emmen

Emmen beat Jong AZ 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 9, 2026.

Goals: C. Staring (18'), A. Oufkir (35'), F. Gerezgiher (45'), B. Kovacs (54'), S. van Manen (77').

Emmen controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.

Jong AZ vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Jong AZ 2–3 Emmen