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Emmen vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
F. Quispel 63'
R. Daal 81' (pen), 57'
P. Mulder 74' (OG)
S. van Duijn 13'
4/18/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 35De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Emmen57%
×Draw21%
Jong AZ22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
2.07
Jong AZ
1.20

Emmen creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.99
Jong AZ
0.74

allows per match

Emmen
1.66
Jong AZ
2.15

finishing

Emmen-0.32scores less
Jong AZ+0.59scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
78%
Emmen or Jong AZ
79%
Draw or Jong AZ
43%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
34%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
87%
Emmen 2+ goals
61%
Emmen 3+ goals
34%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
70%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
34%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
72%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.99 + Jong AZ defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.07

Jong AZ attack 0.74 + Emmen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Emmen scores more
57%
level
21%
Jong AZ scores more
22%

Emmen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. DaalJong AZJong AZ · M
8.9

Match Events

13'
S. van Duijn↳ A. Smits
57'
R. Daal
58'
F. Quispel← J. Hawkins
58'
Y. Eduardo← C. Landu
63'
F. Quispel
67'
J. Gerold← S. van Duijn
74'
P. MulderOwn goal
77'
T. Jóhannessen← R. Robbemond
78'
Fridolin Wagner
81'
R. DaalPenalty
82'
F. Evina← Alaa Bakir
85'
J. van Aken← R. Daal
85'
I. Splinter← A. Smits
90+1'
Mike te Wierik
90+1'
Tómas Johannessen

Possession

56%Emmen

Shots

15Emmen

Pass accuracy

52%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenJong
Overview
56%Possession44%
15Total Shots13
10Corners4
11Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots13
5On Target5
8Off Target2
2Blocked6
9Inside Box10
6Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
455Total Passes376
365Accurate Passes282
80%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 1–4 Jong AZ

Jong AZ beat Emmen 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on April 18, 2025.

Goals: S. van Duijn (13'), R. Daal (57', 81' pen), F. Quispel (63'), P. Mulder (74' o.g.).

Emmen controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.