Jong AZ 3–2 Emmen: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Jong AZ

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Emmen

E. Poku 70'

D. Kwakman 57'

R. Daal 25'

M. Kieftenbeld 44'

P. Brouwer 40'

4/8/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 33AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jong AZ47%

×Draw22%

Emmen31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jong AZExpected goals in this matchEmmen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.49

Jong AZ

1.88

Emmen

1.49

Jong AZ creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.66

creates per match

1.43

1.55

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Jong AZ

1.66

Emmen

1.43

allows per match

Jong AZ

1.55

Emmen

2.11

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Jong AZ-0.28scores less

Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Emmen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw

69%

Jong AZ or Emmen

78%

Draw or Emmen

53%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+

26%

Emmen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals

85%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

56%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

29%

Emmen 1+ goals

77%

Emmen 2+ goals

44%

Emmen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

60%

Emmen (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.55 · 8 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.66 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.88

Emmen attack 1.43 + Jong AZ defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jong AZ scores more

47%

level

22%

Emmen scores more

31%

Jong AZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Daal

Jong AZ · M

8.7

Match Events

9'

V. Besuijen← B. van Hoeven

25'

R. Daal↳ F. Stam

40'

P. Brouwer

44'

M. Kieftenbeld↳ M. te Wierik

57'

D. Kwakman↳ R. Daal

61'

Maikel Kieftenbeld

63'

S. Dekkers← J. van Aken

70'

E. Poku↳ K. Smit

74'

Dave Kwakman

74'

Desley Ubbink

76'

B. Scholte← M. Kieftenbeld

76'

M. Pouwels← J. Smeets

76'

80'

82'

85'

87'

89'

P. Parzyszek← M. Heylen

90+3'

T. Kerssens← K. Smit

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JongEmmen

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots7

4Corners2

8Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots7

7On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

497Total Passes336

417Accurate Passes246

84%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs Emmen

Jong AZ beat Emmen 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on April 8, 2024.

Goals: R. Daal (25'), P. Brouwer (40'), M. Kieftenbeld (44'), D. Kwakman (57'), E. Poku (70').

Jong AZ controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.

Jong AZ vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs Emmen