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Jeunes Fauves vs Aigle Royal — Elite One 2019

Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
4/24/2024Elite OneElite One · Relegation Round - 5Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Jeunes Fauves40%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunes Fauves
1.25
Aigle Royal
1.07

Jeunes Fauves creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 38 away

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.08
Aigle Royal
0.87

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.27
Aigle Royal
1.42

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw
68%
Jeunes Fauves or Aigle Royal
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal
60%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
18%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
71%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
36%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
13%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
66%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
29%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
56%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more
40%
level
28%
Aigle Royal scores more
32%

Jeunes Fauves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Jeunes Fauves 2–0 Aigle Royal

Jeunes Fauves beat Aigle Royal 2-0 in Elite One on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.