Aigle Royal 1–1 Jeunes Fauves: Result & Stats

Aigle Royal

FT

1 – 1

Jeunes Fauves

3/20/2021

Elite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aigle Royal48%

×Draw26%

Jeunes Fauves26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aigle RoyalExpected goals in this matchJeunes Fauves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Aigle Royal

1.50

Jeunes Fauves

1.03

Aigle Royal creates 46% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

1.50

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Aigle Royal

1.50

Jeunes Fauves

1.17

allows per match

Aigle Royal

0.89

Jeunes Fauves

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Jeunes Fauves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw

74%

Aigle Royal or Jeunes Fauves

74%

Draw or Jeunes Fauves

52%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

24%

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

78%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

44%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

19%

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

64%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

28%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

65%

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.17 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aigle Royal scores more

48%

level

26%

Jeunes Fauves scores more

26%

Aigle Royal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff