Jeunes Fauves 2–1 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats

Jeunes Fauves

FT

2 – 1

Aigle Royal

7/18/2021

Elite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jeunes Fauves47%

×Draw26%

Aigle Royal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunes FauvesExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.08

Jeunes Fauves

1.50

Aigle Royal

1.08

Jeunes Fauves creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.75

creates per match

1.29

0.88

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.75

Aigle Royal

1.29

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves

0.88

Aigle Royal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw

73%

Jeunes Fauves or Aigle Royal

74%

Draw or Aigle Royal

53%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

23%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

78%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

44%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

19%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

66%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

29%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

63%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.75 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Jeunes Fauves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more

47%

level

26%

Aigle Royal scores more

27%

Jeunes Fauves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff