Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 FC Seoul: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Seoul

Song Min-Kyu 45'

Ryu Jae-Moon 25'

6/21/2025

K League 1 · Round 20Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors46%

×Draw26%

FC Seoul28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchFC Seoul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Jeonbuk Motors

1.48

FC Seoul

1.10

Jeonbuk Motors creates 35% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 138 away

1.68

creates per match

1.21

1.00

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.68

FC Seoul

1.21

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.00

FC Seoul

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

FC Seoul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

72%

Jeonbuk Motors or FC Seoul

74%

Draw or FC Seoul

54%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

23%

FC Seoul wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

77%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

43%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

19%

FC Seoul 1+ goals

67%

FC Seoul 2+ goals

30%

FC Seoul 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

62%

FC Seoul (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.00 · 140 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.68 + FC Seoul defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Seoul attack 1.21 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

46%

level

26%

FC Seoul scores more

28%

Jeonbuk Motors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Ryu Jae-Moon

FC Seoul · M

7.7

Match Events

25'

Ryu Jae-Moon↳ J. Lingard

45'

Song Min-Kyu

46'

Choi Chul-Won← Kang Hyeon-Mu

46'

Moon Seon-Min← Son Seung-Beom

46'

P. Klimala← M. Dugandzic

60'

Lee Yeong-Jae← Kim Jin-gyu

60'

A. Compagno← Tiago Orobo

69'

Lee Seung-Mo← Hwang Do-Yun

75'

P. Twumasi← Lee Seung-Woo

83'

Jung Han-Min← J. Lingard

86'

Kwon Chang-Hoon← Song Min-Kyu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JeonbukFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots10

3Corners1

7Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target2

4Off Target4

5Blocked4

4Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

519Total Passes398

444Accurate Passes321

86%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls9

3Offsides2