FC Seoul 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

FC Seoul

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonbuk Motors

Yeon Je-Woon 90' (OG)

Song Min-Kyu 84'

9/27/2025

K League 1 · Round 31Seoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

FC Seoul32%

×Draw27%

Jeonbuk Motors41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SeoulExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.34

FC Seoul

1.15

Jeonbuk Motors

1.34

Jeonbuk Motors creates 17% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 136 away

1.39

creates per match

1.47

1.22

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

FC Seoul

1.39

Jeonbuk Motors

1.47

allows per match

FC Seoul

1.22

Jeonbuk Motors

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw

59%

FC Seoul or Jeonbuk Motors

73%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

68%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+

13%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals

68%

FC Seoul 2+ goals

32%

FC Seoul 3+ goals

11%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

74%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

39%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)

44%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.22 · 135 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.91 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.39 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.47 + FC Seoul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Seoul scores more

32%

level

27%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

41%

Jeonbuk Motors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Song Min-Kyu

Jeonbuk Motors · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

Lee Yeong-Jae← Kang Sang-Yoon

46'

Hwang Do-Yun← Ryu Jae-Moon

46'

J. Gamboa← Kim Young-Bin

46'

P. Twumasi← Jeon Jin-Woo

64'

Tiago Orobo← A. Compagno

70'

Moon Seon-Min← J. Lingard

71'

Tae-hwan Kim

81'

Cheon Seong-Hoon← Cho Young-Wook

81'

Han Kook-Young←

84'

Song Min-Kyu↳ Kim Jin-gyu

85'

Min-kyu Song

89'

Tiago Orobó

90+7'

Seung-mo Lee

90'

Lucas Silva← Jeong Seung-Won

90'

Yeon Je-Woon← Song Min-Kyu

90'

Yeon Je-WoonOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCJeonbuk

Overview

63%Possession37%

23Total Shots10

8Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

23Total Shots10

5On Target2

11Off Target4

7Blocked4

12Inside Box8

11Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

500Total Passes303

427Accurate Passes228

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2