FC Seoul 0–1 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

FC Seoul

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jeonbuk Motors

Song Min-Kyu 87'

7/2/2025

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsSeoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Seoul26%

×Draw22%

Jeonbuk Motors52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC SeoulExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.00

FC Seoul

1.35

Jeonbuk Motors

2.00

Jeonbuk Motors creates 48% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

FC Seoul

1.20

Jeonbuk Motors

2.00

allows per match

FC Seoul

2.00

Jeonbuk Motors

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Seoul+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Seoul ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Seoul or draw

48%

FC Seoul or Jeonbuk Motors

78%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

74%

Winning margin

FC Seoul wins by 2+

11%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

FC Seoul 1+ goals

74%

FC Seoul 2+ goals

39%

FC Seoul 3+ goals

15%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

86%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

59%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

FC Seoul (draw refunded)

33%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Seoul at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Seoul attack 1.20 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.00 + FC Seoul defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Seoul scores more

26%

level

22%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

52%

Jeonbuk Motors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

A. Compagno← Tiago Orobo

61'

Song Min-Kyu← Lee Seung-Woo

61'

Kim Jin-gyu← Lee Yeong-Jae

66'

P. Klimala← M. Dugandzic

66'

Moon Seon-Min← Lucas Silva

80'

Kwon Chang-Hoon← Yeon Je-Woon

82'

Park Jin-Seob

84'

Kwon Chang-Hoon

85'

P. Klimala

87'

Song Min-Kyu↳ Kang Sang-Yoon

88'

Ryu Jae-Moon

90+3'

Lee Seung-Mo← Hwang Do-Yun

90+3'

Hong Jeong-Ho← Kang Sang-Yoon

90+5'

Kim Jeong-Hoon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff