Jedinstvo Ub 2–3 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

IMT Novi Beograd

D. Aćimović 58'

V. Damjanić 17'

N. Krstić 38', 27'

Y. Court 8' (pen)

8/24/2024

Super Liga · Round 6Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub36%

×Draw26%

IMT Novi Beograd38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.35

Jedinstvo Ub

1.29

IMT Novi Beograd

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 56 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

1.50

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.00

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.50

IMT Novi Beograd

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

62%

Jedinstvo Ub or IMT Novi Beograd

74%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

64%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

16%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

72%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

37%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

14%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

74%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

39%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

48%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

36%

level

26%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

38%

IMT Novi Beograd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

N. Krstić

IMT Novi Beograd · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

Y. CourtPenalty

17'

V. Damjanić↳ M. Mitrović

19'

Marko Mitrović

25'

Lazar Konstantinov

27'

N. Krstić

38'

N. Krstić↳ A. Lutovac

46'

I. Milanović← I. Kargbo

55'

O. Dimitrić← S. Denić

56'

A. Popović← J. Kristoffersen

58'

D. Aćimović↳ N. Doderović

63'

Aleksandar Lutovac

66'

Aleksandar Popović

73'

U. Stevančević← S. Golubović

73'

J. Stojanović← I. Milanović

77'

V. Radočaj← N. Terzić

79'

Vladimir Radočaj

90'

V. Kijevčanin← A. Lutovac

90'

L. Luković← I. Zulfić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JedinstvoIMT

Overview

36%Possession64%

8Total Shots9

2Corners6

15Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots9

4On Target4

3Off Target4

1Blocked1

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

271Total Passes506

181Accurate Passes417

67%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1