IMT Novi Beograd 2–0 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jedinstvo Ub

U. Bonnet 67'

L. Luković 39'

2/2/2025

Super Liga · Round 21Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd56%

×Draw23%

Jedinstvo Ub21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.01

IMT Novi Beograd

1.81

Jedinstvo Ub

1.01

IMT Novi Beograd creates 79% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.74

1.28

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Jedinstvo Ub

0.74

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Jedinstvo Ub

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

79%

IMT Novi Beograd or Jedinstvo Ub

77%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

44%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

32%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

84%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

54%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

27%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

64%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

27%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

73%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

Jedinstvo Ub attack 0.74 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

56%

level

23%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

21%

IMT Novi Beograd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

V. Radočaj

IMT Novi Beograd · M

8.6

Match Events

25'

Nikola KrstićMissed penalty

25'

Nikola Glišić

39'

L. Luković

64'

Aleksandar Lutovac

66'

E. Adimchukwunobi← V. Novičić

66'

A. Stevanović← L. Luković

67'

U. Bonnet↳ V. Radočaj

75'

R. Denzell← M. Mitrović

75'

L. Zhordania← U. Savković

82'

U. Stevančević← B. Runjajić

82'

S. Petkoski Cimbaljević← S. Golubović

89'

S. Bastaja← A. Lutovac

89'

M. Jevtić← S. Popović

90+3'

Stefan Cimbaljević

90+1'

K. Campbell← V. Lučić

90+1'

R. Lazić← D. Miladinović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTJedinstvo

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots10

4Corners3

20Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target3

5Off Target6

4Blocked1

13Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

466Total Passes346

356Accurate Passes247

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4