IMT Novi Beograd 4–3 Jedinstvo Ub: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Jedinstvo Ub

S. Charles 88'

S. Stefanović 74'

M. Luković 63'

U. Stamenić 22'

U. Stevančević 90'

K. Kwaku 81'

M. Adamović 51' (pen)

5/13/2023

Prva Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadion FK Bežanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd53%

×Draw25%

Jedinstvo Ub22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Ub

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.97

IMT Novi Beograd

1.64

Jedinstvo Ub

0.97

IMT Novi Beograd creates 69% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

1.93

creates per match

1.05

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.93

Jedinstvo Ub

1.05

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.89

Jedinstvo Ub

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

78%

IMT Novi Beograd or Jedinstvo Ub

75%

Draw or Jedinstvo Ub

47%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

28%

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

81%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

49%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

23%

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

62%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

25%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

70%

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.93 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.64

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

53%

level

25%

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

22%

IMT Novi Beograd at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

U. Stamenić

46'

D. Miladinović← B. Riznić

51'

M. AdamovićPenalty

63'

U. Stevančević← F. Avrić

63'

M. Luković

74'

S. Stefanović

76'

N. Vukić← V. Kijevčanin

76'

V. Radočaj← L. Luković

81'

K. Kwaku

83'

A. Stevanović← M. Luković

83'

S. Charles← U. Stamenić

83'

Đ. Vladisavljević← A. Bogdanović

88'

S. Charles

90'

U. Stevančević

IMT

Jedinstvo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Luković

Manager: N. Jandrić

76'▲N. Vukić←▼V. Kijevčanin

76'▲V. Radočaj←▼L. Luković

83'▲A. Stevanović←▼M. Luković

83'▲S. Charles←▼U. Stamenić

IMT Novi Beograd substitutes

VukićRadočajStevanovićCharles

Manager: M. Obradović

46'▲D. Miladinović←▼B. Riznić

63'▲U. Stevančević←▼F. Avrić

83'▲Đ. Vladisavljević←▼A. Bogdanović

Jedinstvo Ub substitutes

MiladinovićStevančevićVladisavljević

Match Recap: IMT Novi Beograd vs Jedinstvo Ub

IMT Novi Beograd beat Jedinstvo Ub 4-3 in Prva Liga on May 13, 2023.

Goals: U. Stamenić (22'), M. Adamović (51' pen), M. Luković (63'), S. Stefanović (74'), K. Kwaku (81'), S. Charles (88'), U. Stevančević (90').

The match was played at Stadion FK Bežanija in Beograd.

IMT Novi Beograd vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: IMT Novi Beograd vs Jedinstvo Ub