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Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan — Indian Super League 2025

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
R. Das 90'
L. Colaco 15'
4/4/2026Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 7JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jamshedpur43%
×Draw30%
ATK Mohun Bagan27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
1.18
ATK Mohun Bagan
0.86

Jamshedpur creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.47
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.13

allows per match

Jamshedpur
0.60
ATK Mohun Bagan
0.88

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
73%
Jamshedpur or ATK Mohun Bagan
70%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
57%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
19%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
69%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
33%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
12%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
58%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
21%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
62%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.47 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.18

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.13 + Jamshedpur defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
43%
level
30%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
27%

Jamshedpur at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. ColacoATK Mohun BaganATK Mohun Bagan · M
8.3

Match Events

15'
L. Colaco↳ S. Bose
38'
Alberto Rodríguez
50'
Apuia
65'
R. Tachikawa← L. Cirkovic
65'
R. Gabriel← V. Barretto
65'
L. Chawngthu← P. Halder
72'
Stephen Eze
73'
D. Petratos← Robinho
85'
R. Das← M. K. Sanan
87'
J. Cummings← J. Maclaren
89'
D. Tangri← L. Colaco
90'
R. Das↳ R. Messi Bouli

Possession

50%Jamshedpur

Shots

8Jamshedpur

Pass accuracy

50%Jamshedpur

Statistics

JamshedpurATK
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots14
0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.19
4Corners8
5Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots14
4On Target3
4Off Target3
0Blocked8
3Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
333Total Passes341
230Accurate Passes238
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Jamshedpur vs ATK Mohun Bagan

Jamshedpur and ATK Mohun Bagan drew 1-1 in Indian Super League on April 4, 2026.

Goals: L. Colaco (15'), R. Das (90').

Jamshedpur controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex in Jamshedpur.