Jamshedpur 2–1 ATK Mohun Bagan: Result & Stats

Jamshedpur

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

ATK Mohun Bagan

Javi Hernández 90+1'

Javi Siverio 24'

J. Cummings 37'

4/3/2025

Indian Super League · Championship - Semi-finalsJRD Tata Sports Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jamshedpur40%

×Draw28%

ATK Mohun Bagan32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamshedpurExpected goals in this matchATK Mohun Bagan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.09

Jamshedpur

1.25

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.09

Jamshedpur creates 15% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

1.42

creates per match

1.18

1.00

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Jamshedpur

1.42

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.18

allows per match

Jamshedpur

1.00

ATK Mohun Bagan

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw

68%

Jamshedpur or ATK Mohun Bagan

72%

Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan

60%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

18%

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

71%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

36%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

13%

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals

66%

ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals

30%

ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

55%

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.42 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 1.18 + Jamshedpur defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jamshedpur scores more

40%

level

28%

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more

32%

Jamshedpur at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Eze

Jamshedpur · D

7.6

Match Events

24'

36'

37'

55'

56'

R. Tachikawa← Javi Siverio

71'

J. Maclaren← G. Stewart

77'

D. Petratos← J. Cummings

77'

A. Kuruniyan← S. Abdul Samad

78'

R. Das← M. Sanan

90+6'

Stephen Eze

90+5'

Jamie MacLaren

90+6'

L. Ćirković← J. Murray

90+6'

V. Sreekuttan← N. Barla

90+1'

Javi Hernández↳ R. Das

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JamshedpurATK

Overview

27%Possession73%

6Total Shots14

2Corners5

8Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots14

4On Target3

1Off Target8

1Blocked3

5Inside Box7

1Outside Box7

Passing

27%Possession73%

197Total Passes534

108Accurate Passes447

55%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3