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ATK Mohun Bagan vs Jamshedpur — Indian Super League 2025

ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Baganadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
L. Ralte 90+4'
J. Cummings 51' (pen)
4/7/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Championship - Semi-finalsVivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ATK Mohun Bagan53%
×Draw23%
Jamshedpur23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ATK Mohun Bagan
1.77
Jamshedpur
1.08

ATK Mohun Bagan creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

creates per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
2.06
Jamshedpur
1.35

allows per match

ATK Mohun Bagan
0.81
Jamshedpur
1.47

finishing

ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par
Jamshedpur+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATK Mohun Bagan ↓

Jamshedpur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ATK Mohun Bagan or draw
77%
ATK Mohun Bagan or Jamshedpur
77%
Draw or Jamshedpur
47%

Winning margin

ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
30%
Jamshedpur wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
83%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
53%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
26%
Jamshedpur 1+ goals
66%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
29%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
70%
Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATK Mohun Bagan at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Jamshedpur away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.06 + Jamshedpur defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Jamshedpur attack 1.35 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
53%
level
23%
Jamshedpur scores more
23%

ATK Mohun Bagan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ATK Mohun Bagan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45
L. RalteATK Mohun BaganATK Mohun Bagan · M
8.2

Match Events

25'
Nikhil Barla
28'
Tom Aldred
45+2'
Seminlen Doungel
51'
J. CummingsPenalty
55'
Javi Hernández
57'
R. Das← M. Sanan
57'
Javi Siverio← R. Tachikawa
57'
V. Sreekuttan← S. Doungel
62'
P. Chaudhari← N. Barla
70'
Manvir Singh← A. Kuruniyan
81'
D. Petratos← J. Cummings
90+4'
L. Ralte↳ A. Thapa

Possession

74%ATK

Shots

35ATK

Pass accuracy

57%ATK

Statistics

ATKJamshedpur
Overview
74%Possession26%
35Total Shots10
12Corners2
9Fouls8
Shots
35Total Shots10
10On Target2
14Off Target7
11Blocked1
16Inside Box5
19Outside Box5
Passing
74%Possession26%
563Total Passes212
483Accurate Passes135
86%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: ATK Mohun Bagan vs Jamshedpur

ATK Mohun Bagan beat Jamshedpur 2-0 in Indian Super League on April 7, 2025.

Goals: J. Cummings (51' pen), L. Ralte (90+4').

ATK Mohun Bagan controlled possession (74%) and registered 35 shots to 10.

The match was played at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan Stadium in Kolkata.