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Jaguares vs Depor FC — Primera B 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Depor FC
Depor FC
2/23/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jaguares61%
×Draw24%
Depor FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.71
Depor FC
0.74

Jaguares creates 131% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 128 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.78
Depor FC
0.88

allows per match

Jaguares
0.61
Depor FC
1.63

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Depor FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
84%
Jaguares or Depor FC
76%
Draw or Depor FC
39%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
34%
Depor FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
82%
Jaguares 2+ goals
51%
Jaguares 3+ goals
24%
Depor FC 1+ goals
52%
Depor FC 2+ goals
17%
Depor FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
79%
Depor FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.63 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.78 + Depor FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Depor FC attack 0.88 + Jaguares defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jaguares scores more
61%
level
24%
Depor FC scores more
16%

Jaguares at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Jaguares 3–1 Depor FC

Jaguares beat Depor FC 3-1 in Primera B on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria in Monteria.