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Depor FC vs Jaguares — Copa Colombia 2019

Depor FC
Depor FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jaguares
Jaguares
3/6/2024Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Depor FC36%
×Draw27%
Jaguares37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Depor FC
1.25
Jaguares
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

Depor FC
1.09
Jaguares
0.84

allows per match

Depor FC
1.73
Jaguares
1.42

finishing

Depor FC+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Depor FC ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Depor FC or draw
63%
Depor FC or Jaguares
73%
Draw or Jaguares
64%

Winning margin

Depor FC wins by 2+
16%
Jaguares wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Depor FC 1+ goals
71%
Depor FC 2+ goals
36%
Depor FC 3+ goals
13%
Jaguares 1+ goals
72%
Jaguares 2+ goals
37%
Jaguares 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Depor FC (draw refunded)
49%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Depor FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Depor FC attack 1.09 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jaguares attack 0.84 + Depor FC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Depor FC scores more
36%
level
27%
Jaguares scores more
37%

Jaguares at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Depor FC vs Jaguares

Jaguares beat Depor FC 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.