Jaguares 2–1 Depor FC: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Depor FC

3/19/2024

Copa Colombia · 1st RoundEstadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Jaguares60%

×Draw24%

Depor FC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchDepor FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.73

Jaguares

1.67

Depor FC

0.73

Jaguares creates 129% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.42

creates per match

0.46

1.00

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Jaguares

1.42

Depor FC

0.46

allows per match

Jaguares

1.00

Depor FC

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Depor FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Depor FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

84%

Jaguares or Depor FC

76%

Draw or Depor FC

40%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

33%

Depor FC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

81%

Jaguares 2+ goals

50%

Jaguares 3+ goals

23%

Depor FC 1+ goals

52%

Depor FC 2+ goals

17%

Depor FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

79%

Depor FC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Depor FC away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.42 + Depor FC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

Depor FC attack 0.46 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jaguares scores more

60%

level

24%

Depor FC scores more

16%

Jaguares at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff