Ituano 3–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ituano

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Criciuma

Yann Rolim 74', 23'

Matheus Cadorini 37' (pen)

8/19/2023

Serie B · Round 24Estádio Municipal Dr. Novelli Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ituano41%

×Draw30%

Criciuma29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItuanoExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.89

Ituano

1.13

Criciuma

0.89

Ituano creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 87 away

1.11

creates per match

0.90

0.88

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Ituano

1.11

Criciuma

0.90

allows per match

Ituano

0.88

Criciuma

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ituano+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ituano ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ituano or draw

71%

Ituano or Criciuma

70%

Draw or Criciuma

59%

Winning margin

Ituano wins by 2+

17%

Criciuma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ituano 1+ goals

68%

Ituano 2+ goals

31%

Ituano 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

59%

Criciuma 2+ goals

22%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ituano (draw refunded)

59%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ituano at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ituano attack 1.11 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Criciuma attack 0.90 + Ituano defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ituano scores more

41%

level

30%

Criciuma scores more

29%

Ituano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ituano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Yann Rolim

Ituano · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

Rafael CarvalheiraGoal cancelled

23'

Yann Rolim↳ Matheus Cadorini

35'

Hélio BorgesPenalty confirmed

37'

Matheus CadoriniPenalty

45+5'

Rafael Pereira← Claudinho

61'

Hélder← Marcelo Hermes

61'

61'

62'

63'

67'

Felipe Saraiva← Wesley Pomba

67'

Diego Quirino← Matheus Cadorini

71'

Marquinhos Gabriel← Hygor

74'

Yann Rolim

76'

Emerson Urso← Hélio Borges

76'

Vinícius Balieiro← Yann Rolim

81'

Jonathan← Claudinho

90+6'

Rodrigo Fagundes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItuanoCriciuma

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots10

10Corners1

10Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots10

9On Target2

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

10Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

399Total Passes390

321Accurate Passes303

80%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2